Update for Week 48 of 2025

Date: 2025-11-28

The US economy presents a mixed picture as of the week ending November 28, 2025. Inflation appears to be moderating, but the labor market shows signs of weakening, and concerns linger about the impact of tariffs and the government shutdown on economic data. The Federal Reserve recently cut interest rates, and market expectations suggest further cuts are likely.

1. Inflation

Inflation data for November 2025 indicates a cooling of price pressures.

  • Headline CPI/PCE: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose at an annual rate of 2.7% in November, lower than the previous reading of 3.0% and below economists’ forecasts. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also dropped to 2.6% year-on-year, the lowest since March 2021. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index was up 2.8% over the year through November 2025.
  • Energy Prices: Energy price increases slowed, rising 2.3% compared to 4.2% previously. Gasoline prices declined, while natural gas prices increased more sharply.
  • Food Prices: Food prices rose 2.6% on an annual basis in November, down from 3.1% in September.

Quote: “Data returns with November 2025 CPI report: Inflation lower than expected” Chase, Data Returns With November 2025 CPI Report: Inflation Lower Than Expected, Chase, 2025-12-18

2. Employment

The labor market shows signs of softening.

  • Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate increased to 4.6% in November, the highest level since September 2021.
  • Job Openings (JOLTS): Data for November was revised down to show 6.928m job openings.
  • Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose less than estimated, up 0.1% month-over-month.

Quote: “Businesses are not hiring as they adjust to tariffs, uncertain conditions and AI. The result is about 700,000 more unemployed Americans than there were a year ago” Heather Long, Employers added 64,000 jobs in November, but unemployment rate jumps to highest in 4 years - CBS News, CBS News, 2025-12-17

3. Housing Market

The housing market is showing signs of stabilization, but buyer activity remains subdued.

  • Mortgage Rates: The average 30-year mortgage rate is around 6.22%, a decline from earlier in the year.
  • Home Sales: Existing home sales increased by 6.01%.
  • Construction/Starts: Inventory rose for the 25th straight month, but at a slowing pace.

Quote: “Housing is slowly becoming more affordable, as interest rates slowly creep down over time.” Ulland Investment Advisors, US Real Estate - November 2025 Market Report, Ulland Investment Advisors, 2025-11-28

4. GDP & Economic Growth

The US economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter of 2025.

  • GDP Estimates: Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.4% in the third quarter.
  • Manufacturing/Services PMIs: Not available in the provided search results.
  • Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence in November dropped to its lowest level since April, as concerns grew over jobs, living costs, and the broader economy.

Quote: “Real GDP growth was revised up a tick to 4.4% in Q3 2025, marking its strongest advance in two years.” EY, US GDP (Q3 2025), EY, 2026-01-22

5. Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is currently focused on balancing inflation and employment.

  • Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.
  • Fed Speak/Guidance: Policymakers were concerned about signs of weakness in the labor market and moved rates lower despite inflation remaining well above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Market Expectations: Futures markets are assigning roughly 70–73% odds of a rate cut at the December Federal Reserve meeting.

Quote: “Monetary policy is not on a preset course, and Committee decisions are made based on evolving data and risk assessments rather than fixed rules.” Jerome Powell, When Inflation Targets Become Ceilings - Fair Observer, Fair Observer, 2026-02-09

Conclusion

The US economy faces uncertainty as it approaches the end of 2025. While inflation appears to be moderating, a weakening labor market and the potential impact of tariffs pose risks to future growth. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust monetary policy as needed. The effects of the government shutdown on economic data add another layer of complexity to the outlook.