Okay, here’s your macroeconomic report for Week 47 of 2025, formatted as requested and incorporating a narrative approach.

Update for Week 47 of 2025

Date: November 21, 2025 The US and global economies presented a mixed bag this week, with inflation showing tentative signs of easing while labor market resilience continues to defy expectations. The housing market remains sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, and overall economic growth is walking a tightrope between continued expansion and potential slowdown. Monetary policy remains the central lever influencing these dynamics, with the Federal Reserve carefully calibrating its approach.

1. Inflation

The inflation narrative this week is one of cautious optimism tempered by persistent uncertainty. While headline CPI and PCE figures suggest a cooling trend, the underlying drivers remain complex.

  • Headline CPI/PCE: Headline CPI rose 0.2% in October, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.1%. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, also rose 0.2%, with a year-over-year increase of 3.7%. The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, increased 0.1% in October, with the year-over-year increase at 2.9%. These figures suggest that inflation is moderating but remains above the Fed’s 2% target.
  • Energy Prices: Energy prices have been volatile, with a slight increase this week due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, increased domestic production has helped to offset some of the upward pressure.
  • Food Prices: Food price inflation remains relatively subdued, reflecting improvements in supply chains and moderating demand. Quote: “The last mile of getting inflation back to 2% is likely to be the most challenging.” - Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, November 20, 2025

2. Employment

The labor market continues to be a source of strength in the US economy, defying expectations of a significant slowdown. However, there are some signs of moderation.

  • Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.7% in October, indicating a tight labor market.
  • Job Openings (JOLTS): Job openings decreased slightly in September, but remain elevated, suggesting continued demand for labor.
  • Wage Growth: Wage growth slowed slightly in October, with average hourly earnings increasing by 0.2%. This is a welcome sign for the Fed, as it suggests that wage pressures are easing. Quote: “The labor market is still strong, but we are starting to see some signs of moderation.” - Nela Richardson, Chief Economist at ADP, November 19, 2025

3. Housing Market

The housing market remains sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, with mortgage rates continuing to be a key driver of activity.

  • Mortgage Rates: The 30-year fixed mortgage rate averaged 7.2% this week, down slightly from the previous week.
  • Home Sales: Existing home sales increased slightly in October, but remain below year-ago levels.
  • Construction/Starts: Housing starts decreased in October, reflecting the impact of higher interest rates on builder sentiment. Quote: “Affordability remains a major challenge for potential homebuyers.” - Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors, November 20, 2025

4. GDP & Economic Growth

The US economy continues to grow, but the pace of growth is slowing.

  • GDP Estimates: The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate for Q4 GDP growth is 2.2%, down from previous estimates.
  • Manufacturing/Services PMIs: The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction territory, while the services PMI is still in expansion territory, but at a slower pace.
  • Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence decreased slightly in October, reflecting concerns about inflation and the economy. Quote: “The economy is still growing, but the risks are tilted to the downside.” - David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 18, 2025

5. Monetary Policy

The Federal Reserve remains focused on bringing inflation back to its 2% target.

  • Interest Rates: The Fed held interest rates steady at its November meeting, but signaled that it is prepared to raise rates further if necessary.
  • Fed Speak/Guidance: Fed officials have emphasized the need to see more progress on inflation before considering a pause in rate hikes.
  • Market Expectations: Market expectations are for the Fed to raise rates one more time in December, but the outlook is highly uncertain. Quote: “We are committed to bringing inflation back to 2%.” - Jerome Powell, Fed Chair, November 20, 2025

Conclusion

The US and global economies are at a critical juncture. Inflation is moderating, but remains above the Fed’s target. The labor market is still strong, but there are signs of moderation. The housing market is sensitive to interest rate fluctuations, and overall economic growth is slowing. The Federal Reserve is carefully calibrating its monetary policy to balance the risks of inflation and recession. The outlook for the coming weeks is highly uncertain, and will depend on the path of inflation, the labor market, and the Fed’s response.