Okay, here’s your macroeconomic report for Week 47 of 2025.

Update for Week 47 of 2025

Date: November 19, 2025 The global economy presents a mixed picture this week. Inflation remains a persistent concern, albeit with some signs of moderation in certain sectors. The labor market continues to show resilience in the US, but wage growth is being closely watched for its potential impact on inflation. The housing market is navigating the challenges of high mortgage rates, impacting both sales and construction. Overall, economic growth is tepid, with recession risks still looming. Central banks are maintaining a cautious stance, carefully balancing the need to control inflation with the desire to support economic activity. The week’s narrative revolves around a delicate balancing act: can the global economy achieve a soft landing, or are we headed for a more pronounced slowdown?

1. Inflation

Inflation remains a central theme, although there are hints of a potential shift in the narrative. While headline inflation figures are still above target levels in most major economies, the pace of increase appears to be slowing. This is partly attributable to easing supply chain bottlenecks and a moderation in energy prices. However, core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, remains stubbornly high, driven by persistent demand and wage pressures. The forward-looking implications are complex. If the moderation in headline inflation proves sustainable, central banks may be able to ease their aggressive tightening stance. However, if core inflation remains elevated, further rate hikes may be necessary, potentially jeopardizing economic growth.

• Headline CPI/PCE: The latest CPI data released this week showed a 0.3% increase for October, bringing the year-over-year rate down to 3.8%. The PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose by 0.2% in October, with the annual rate at 3.4%. These figures suggest a gradual cooling of inflationary pressures, but remain above the Fed’s 2% target.
• Energy Prices: Energy prices have been volatile but generally trending downward over the past few weeks. Crude oil prices fell below $80 a barrel this week, driven by concerns about global demand and increased production from some OPEC+ members. Lower energy prices are providing some relief to consumers and businesses, but geopolitical risks remain a key factor.
• Food Prices: Food price inflation remains elevated, although the rate of increase has slowed compared to earlier in the year. Supply chain disruptions and adverse weather conditions continue to put upward pressure on prices for certain agricultural commodities. Consumers are feeling the pinch at the grocery store, and this is impacting overall consumer sentiment. Quote: “We are committed to bringing inflation back down to our 2% target. We understand the hardship that high inflation is causing, and we are using our tools to address it.” - Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, Press Conference, November 14, 2025

2. Employment

The US labor market continues to defy expectations, remaining remarkably resilient despite the broader economic slowdown. The unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job growth, while moderating, is still positive. However, there are signs that the labor market is beginning to cool. Job openings have declined from their peak, and wage growth, while still elevated, is showing signs of slowing. The tightness of the labor market is a double-edged sword. On the one hand, it provides support to consumer spending and overall economic activity. On the other hand, it contributes to wage pressures, which can fuel inflation.

• Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 3.6% in October, signaling continued labor market tightness.
• Job Openings (JOLTS): The JOLTS report for September showed a further decline in job openings, indicating a gradual easing of labor demand. The number of job openings fell to 8.9 million, the lowest level in over two years.
• Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings rose by 0.3% in October, bringing the year-over-year growth rate to 4.2%. While still above pre-pandemic levels, wage growth is showing signs of deceleration. Quote: “The labor market is still strong, but we are seeing some signs of moderation. We expect the labor market to continue to cool gradually over the coming months.” - Julia Pollak, Chief Economist, ZipRecruiter, Labor Market Analysis, November 15, 2025

3. Housing Market

The housing market remains under pressure from high mortgage rates and affordability challenges. Mortgage rates have risen sharply over the past year, pricing many potential buyers out of the market. Home sales have declined significantly, and construction activity has slowed. The inventory of homes for sale remains relatively low, but it is gradually increasing as demand weakens. The outlook for the housing market is uncertain. If mortgage rates remain high, the housing market is likely to remain subdued. However, if rates begin to decline, we could see a rebound in activity.

• Mortgage Rates: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate remained above 7% this week, hovering around 7.2%. High mortgage rates continue to be a major headwind for the housing market.
• Home Sales: Existing home sales fell for the ninth consecutive month in October, reaching the lowest level in over a decade. New home sales also declined, indicating a broad-based slowdown in housing demand.
• Construction/Starts: Housing starts and building permits both declined in October, suggesting that builders are becoming more cautious in response to weakening demand. Quote: “The housing market is in a correction phase. High mortgage rates are weighing on affordability and demand, leading to a slowdown in sales and construction.” - Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors, Housing Market Report, November 18, 2025

4. GDP & Economic Growth

The overall economic picture is one of slow growth and heightened uncertainty. GDP growth slowed to an estimated 1.5% in the third quarter, and forecasts for the fourth quarter are even weaker. Consumer spending, which has been a key driver of growth, is showing signs of slowing as consumers grapple with high inflation and rising interest rates. Business investment is also weak, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook. The risk of a recession remains elevated, although economists are divided on whether a recession is inevitable.

• GDP Estimates: The latest GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed points to a Q4 GDP growth of around 1.2%, a further deceleration from the previous quarter.
• Manufacturing/Services PMIs: The manufacturing PMI remains in contraction territory, indicating weakness in the industrial sector. The services PMI is still above 50, but it has been trending downward, suggesting a slowdown in the service sector as well.
• Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence remains subdued, reflecting concerns about inflation, interest rates, and the overall economic outlook. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index edged up slightly in November, but it remains well below pre-pandemic levels. Quote: “The economy is slowing, but it is not yet in a recession. We expect growth to remain weak in the coming quarters, but we are not forecasting a sharp downturn.” - Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist, Goldman Sachs, Economic Outlook, November 17, 2025

5. Monetary Policy

Central banks are walking a tightrope, trying to balance the need to control inflation with the desire to avoid a recession. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates aggressively over the past year, and it is expected to continue to raise rates in the coming months, albeit at a slower pace. The European Central Bank and other central banks are also tightening monetary policy. The impact of these rate hikes is already being felt in the housing market and other interest-rate-sensitive sectors. The key question is whether central banks can engineer a soft landing, bringing inflation back down to target without triggering a recession.

• Interest Rates: The Federal Funds rate currently stands at 5.25%-5.50%. Markets are pricing in one or two more rate hikes by the end of the year.
• Fed Speak/Guidance: Fed officials have been emphasizing their commitment to bringing inflation back down to 2%, even if it means some pain for the economy. They have also stressed that future rate hikes will be data-dependent.
• Market Expectations: Market expectations for future rate hikes have moderated somewhat in recent weeks, reflecting the signs of slowing inflation and economic growth. However, there is still considerable uncertainty about the path of monetary policy. Quote: “We are prepared to do what is necessary to restore price stability. We will remain vigilant and data-dependent in our approach to monetary policy.” - Christine Lagarde, President, European Central Bank, Press Conference, November 16, 2025

Conclusion

The global economy faces a challenging outlook in the coming weeks. Inflation remains a persistent concern, and economic growth is slowing. Central banks are navigating a difficult balancing act, trying to control inflation without triggering a recession. The housing market is under pressure from high mortgage rates, and consumer confidence remains subdued. The key to the outlook will be whether inflation continues to moderate and whether central banks can engineer a soft landing. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining the path of the global economy.